10 Best Dividend Stocks of 2020 and Beyond

Though they may seem inconsequential to some investors, dividend stocks are pivotal to building a portfolio to increase wealth despite the previous bear market in this economy changed by the coronavirus.  This TradingSim article will help investors find the best dividend stocks of 2020 to buy and hold in order to rebalance their portfolios. This article will also help investors determine the best stocks to help them improve their investment strategies.

What are dividend stocks?

Dividend stocks are shares from corporations that offer extra payouts every quarter to investors.  With many dividend stocks, investors can purchase low-risk value stocks. With companies giving dividends, corporations pay investors in shares instead of cash.

How are dividend stocks beneficial to investors?

Because they offer tax benefits, corporations that offer dividends are beneficial to investors. With corporations offering dividends, the IRS doesn’t usually collect capital gains taxes.  The IRS doesn’t collect capital gains taxes unless investors sell the shares at a profit. In addition to that tax advantage, corporations with dividends have special tax perks.

If an investor buys stock before the reinvestment date, there is a benefit. That benefit increases if investors keep the stock for 60 days. If an investor holds a stock for two months or longer, the IRS treats the dividend as a qualified dividend. In that case, the IRS taxes the dividends at low tax rates between 5-15%.

If investors are looking for the best stocks that offer dividends, here are 10 of the top choices for investors.

1. AT&T

AT&T is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 

If investors are looking for the best companies offering dividends, AT&T (NYSE:T) is a good choice.  Because the company has been around for over a century, AT&T’s dividend yield of 6% is great for investors.

The telecommunication’s stock is a dividend aristocrat.  With dividend aristocrats, investors are buying stocks that consistently pay high dividends to investors for at least 25 years. Because AT&T is a dividend aristocrat, the company is a great dividend stock in 2020 and beyond.

AT&T Q2 2020 earnings deliver strong results

In addition to strong dividends, the telecommunications giant also had a robust Q2 earnings report. AT&T reported revenue of $41 billion.  In the last quarter, The company’s profits took a hit. AT&T’s revenue slightly dropped because its movie division was stalled during the nationwide quarantine. Even though profits were down, they still beat Wall Street expectations.  John Stankey, the company’s CEO, spoke about the results.

“Our solid execution and focus in a challenging environment delivered significant progress in the quarter, most notably the successful launch of HBO Max, resilient free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet,” said Stankey.

The chief executive officer also spoke about AT&T’s positive cash flow. 

“Our resilient cash from operations continues to support investments in growth areas, dividend payments and debt retirement. We are aggressively working opportunities to sharpen our focus, transform our operations and continue investing in growth areas, with the customer at the center of everything we do,” added Stankey.

AT&T chief financial officer John Stephens also touted the success of its HBO Max streaming service. 

“One month after launch, HBO Max had about 3 million retail subscribers. 4.1 million subscribers had ‘activated’ their Max account. Of those, more than 1 million are wholesale subscribers through AT&T,” said Stephens.

AT&T stock gets buy ratings from analysts as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

Even though AT&T’s Q2 2020 revenue beat expectations,  two different financial analysts have different takes on the stock. Bernstein analyst Peter Supino said that AT&T stock is a buy because of its increased mobile service during COVID-19. 

“Critically, mobility service revenues, adjusted for roaming, grew by more than 1%,” noted Supino.

Morningstar analyst Mike Hodel also rates AT&T as one of the best dividend stocks for 2020 and beyond. 

“Looking at AT&T’s businesses individually, we believe the firm still deserves a narrow moat based primarily on cost advantages within the wireless business and intangible assets acquired with Time Warner. These advantages should enable the firm to maintain relationships with customers and increase free cash flow,” said Hodel. 

Some analysts see AT&T as a weaker dividend stock

While Peter Supino rates AT&T stock a buy, other analysts are bearish on the telecom company’s site. MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a note to clients that he is skeptical that AT&T can compete with other wireless companies. 

“Their loss of postpaid phone subscribers owes, in part, to the necessity of prioritizing free cash flow over growth in order to mitigate the weakness in their media and wireline businesses. And, perhaps more importantly, it is unclear whether AT&T has the balance sheet to vigorously compete in the FCC’s upcoming auctions for mid-band spectrum,” wrote Moffett.

Even though analysts are split on whether to buy AT&T stock, the company’s strong dividend makes the stock a good long-term buy for investors.

2. Microsoft

Microsoft stock is one of the best dividend stocks for investors

In addition to AT&T, tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 for investors. Microsoft’s dividend yield is small at 1%, but offers a robust dividend. In addition to a reliable dividend, Microsoft’s last earnings report was better-than-expected as well.

Microsoft has positive Q3 2020 earnings as one of the best dividend stocks

In its Q3 2020 earnings report, Microsoft had a strong Q3 2020 earnings report. The company’s CEO Satya Nadella, spoke about the positive results. 

“We’ve seen two years’ worth of digital transformation in two months. From remote teamwork and learning to sales and customer service to critical cloud infrastructure and security — we are working alongside customers every day to help them adapt and stay open for business in a world of remote everything. Our durable business model, diversified portfolio, and differentiated technology stack position us well for what’s ahead,” said Nadella in a statement.

Microsoft’s quarterly revenue grew to $35 billion. The corporation’s revenue increased because of “cloud usage increased, particularly in Microsoft 365, including Teams, Azure, Windows Virtual Desktop, advanced security solutions, and Power Platform, as customers shifted to work and learn from home”, noted Microsoft in its earnings report.

Microsoft is a buy for some financial experts

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted that Microsoft stock is a buy because of its successful cloud technology. He also thinks that the tech company is benefiting from many workers working more from home.

He also noted “this current remote work from home (WFH) environment is further catalyzing more enterprises to make the strategic cloud shift with Microsoft the main beneficiary as evidenced by the solid results.”

“In a nutshell, Nadella & Co. continue to lead a transformational cloud story narrowing the gap vs. Bezos and AWS into 2021,” added Ives.

Amana  Mutual Funds also is bullish on Microsoft stock because of its cloud technology. 

“Microsoft has done an excellent job building its Azure cloud services business, while we believe a strong period of semiconductor demand will arrive in the new decade supporting Microchip and Taiwan Semiconductor. Whether the rally starts in 2020 or 2021 remains to be seen but recent signs have been positive.”

Because of Microsoft’s strong Q3 2020 results and bullish analysis from experts, Microsoft has a dividend stock that investors should choose.

3.  Johnson & Johnson

Like AT&T, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is another high-yield dividend aristocrat that is a good choice for investors. The company’s dividend yield is a healthy 2.76%. 

The healthcare company overcame controversy for allegedly producing toxic baby powder.  The corporation is moving beyond that tumultuous period as the corporation develops a COVID-19 vaccine.

 Paul Stoffels, M.D., Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee and Chief Scientific Officer, is supervising the project. He spoke about the potential treatment in a statement. 

“We are excited to see these pre-clinical data because they show our SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate generated a strong antibody response and provided protection with a single dose. The findings give us confidence as we progress our vaccine development and upscale manufacturing in parallel, having initiated a Phase 1/2a trial in July with the intention to move into a Phase 3 trial in September,” said Stoffels. 

Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson is a top dividend stock in 2020 

“Based on the strength of the preclinical data we have seen so far and interactions with the regulatory authorities, we have been able to further accelerate the clinical development of our investigational SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, Ad26.COV2-S, recombinant,” said Stoffels.

“Simultaneously, we are continuing our efforts to build important global partnerships and invest in our vaccine production technology and manufacturing capabilities. Our goal is to ensure we can deliver a vaccine to the world and protect people everywhere from this pandemic,” added Stoffels. 

Johnson & Johnson stock rises on promising coronavirus vaccine trial

Mathai Mammen, M.D., Ph.D.,  is the global head of Janssen Research & Development, LLC at Johnson & Johnson.  He noted that the potential for the vaccine can have a great impact on the world. 

“As we collectively battle this pandemic, we remain deeply committed to our goal of providing a safe and effective vaccine to the world. Our pre-clinical results give us reason to be optimistic as we initiate our first-in-human clinical trial, and we are excited to enter the next stage in our research and development toward a COVID-19 vaccine,” said Mammen.

“We know that, if successful, this vaccine can be rapidly developed, produced on a large scale and delivered around the world,” added Mammen. 

Financial analysts say Johnson & Johnson is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 

CNBC financial analyst Jim Kramer thinks that Johnson & Johnson stock is a buy because of its strong dividend and its vaccine development. 

“J&J has the best pipeline of these drug companies,” said Cramer. “Their vaccine could fail and the stock wouldn’t even go down. That’s how cheap this thing is. I think it’s a buy right here,” said Cramer. 

In addition to Cramer, Merrill Lynch analyst Bob Hopkins is bullish on Johnson & Johnson stock. He believes that the company can overcome its past troubles if the coronavirus vaccine is effective. 

“We continue to like the risk reward in JNJ. While visibility remains low with litigation, Covid’s impact on the economy could well bring names like JNJ back into favor and goodwill from a successful vaccine could limit drug pricing risk,” wrote Hopkins in a note to clients. 

Because of its healthy dividend and promising vaccine, investors can pick Johnson & Johnson stock. 

4. Altria

While Johnson & Johnson wants to be a dividend stock that promotes health, Altria (NYSE: MO) is a “sin” dividend stock. The tobacco company has an impressive 8% dividend yield. In Altria’s Q2 2020 earnings report, chief financial officer Sal Mancuso spoke about Altria raising its dividend payout.

“We are pleased to announce that yesterday, our board declared the quarterly dividend ahead of our normally scheduled declaration date. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.86 per share, representing a new annualized dividend rate of $3.44 per share,” said Mancuso.

“This represents an increase of 2.4% from the previous annualized rate of $3.36 per share and marks the 55th dividend increase in the past 51 years. Our balance sheet is strong, and our core tobacco businesses continue to generate significant cash,” added Mancuso.

Altria stock rises as Q2 2020 earnings beat expectations

Despite the slowdown in tobacco sales, the tobacco company had an increased earnings per share in its latest earnings report.

“Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., our employees continue to execute against our 10-year vision with strong focus and commitment,” said Altria in a statement.

“Over the first-half of 2020, we believe Altria showed resilience in volatile market conditions, growing adjusted diluted earnings per share by 8.5%, ” said Altira. The company’s earnings were “driven by the outstanding financial performance of our core tobacco businesses. We’ve also hit key milestones and made steady progress behind our noncombustible product portfolio,” added Altria.

Financial analysts bullish on Altria as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

Morningstar analyst Phillip Gorham rates Altria as an underrated stock. He notes that the overall robust cigarette industry makes the stock a buy.

“Underlying trends in the U.S. cigarette industry appear to be intact following Altria’s first-quarter results, which included very strong shipment numbers, with comparability affected by a number of technical issues,” he said.

“Aside from adjusting for the timing of some of the company’s shipments that were brought forward into the first quarter, we are making only modest tweaks to our estimates for the remainder of the year and our longer-term outlook is unchanged. We are reiterating our wide-moat rating and $54 fair-value estimate,” added Gorham.

Stifel analyst Christopher Growe noted that Altria had controversy because of its vaping products.

“The tobacco stocks, especially Altria, seem to find controversy at every turn, with investors increasingly focused on the negatives and the risks, which have always been ever-present for this industry, and not rewarding the improvement in the fundamentals,” said Growe.

However, during the pandemic, people have been buying more tobacco products in bulk during the quarantine. Because of an increase in tobacco use, Growe rates Altria one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 to buy.

“We remain confident in Altria’s ability to lead a price increase again this fall, in line with our estimate (+6% price per pack growth this year) supporting the 4% profit growth we estimate for Altria’s Smokeable division,” said Growe.

If investors want to pick a dividend stock with a strong customer base, Altria is a good choice.

5. Exxon

Even though oil prices have dropped, gas giant Exxon (NYSE:XOM) is still one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. In its latest earnings report, Exxon had a decline in revenue, but still maintains its hefty 8.27% dividend yield.

“Second-quarter results included a $1.9 billion noncash benefit from inventory valuation, largely reversing the first-quarter impact due to the improvement in commodity prices relative to the end of March and resulted in a second-quarter U.S. GAAP loss of $1.1 billion,” noted Exxon.

ExxonMobil is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 to buy and hold

“Excluding identified items, there was a $3 billion loss in the second quarter,” noted Exxon.

The oil giant noted that its revenue was “down $5.3 billion from the first quarter driven by the effects of COVID-19, including the unprecedented decline in oil and product demand, resulting in significant declines in prices.”

ExxonMobil is still one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 despite earnings miss

Because of the global shutdown, many cars stayed off the road and the need for gas declined greatly. As a result, oil company Exxon had a whopping net loss of $1.08 billion in Q2 2020. Exxon chief executive officer Darren Woods explained that the coronavirus caused a decline in the corporation’s profits.

“The global pandemic and oversupply conditions significantly impacted our second quarter financial results with lower prices, margins, and sales volumes,” said Woods.

Exxon vice-president Neil Chapman noted that despite the revenue drop, Exxon remains one of the best dividend stocks.

He noted that the oil company has “a long history of providing a reliable and growing dividend. A large portion of our shareholder base has come to view that dividend as a source of stability in their income,” said Woods.

“We take that very seriously,” added Woods.

Chapman also noted that reducing expenses will help Exxon maintain its high dividend.

“The plans will include further reducing operating expenses and identifying additional opportunities to efficiently defer more capex. Doing so will enable us to maintain the dividend and hold debt at its current level,” said Chapman.

Financial analysts rate ExxonMobil as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

Because of Exxon’s spending reduction, Cowen & Co. analyst Jason Gabelman rates Exxon as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. He commented that Exxon’s asset sales could help reduce

“It has fallen a bit behind schedule but there have been reports there are several packages out,” said Gabelman.

“Given the current environment, XOM[Exxon] will likely need to continue defending its long-term view of energy growth that underpins its counter-cyclical capex [capital expenditure] program that could ramp back up next year,” added Gabelman.

Morningstar strategist Allen Good also rates Exxon as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. He noted the company’s low expenditure costs.

“We[Morningstar] continue to rate Exxon Mobil as one of the higher-quality integrated firms, given its ability to capture economic rents along the oil and gas value chain. While its peers operate a similar business model with the same goal, they fail to do so as successfully, as evidenced in the lower margins and returns. Exxon generates its superior returns from the integration of low-cost assets combined with a low cost of capital; this combination produces excess returns greater than those of its peers,” said Good.

“Additionally, its decision to increase investment relative to peers during the next five years is also likely to narrow the gap in returns with peers,” added Good.

Other financial experts think investors should sell ExxonMobil stock

While some analysts are bullish on Exxon stock, others think that the dividend aristocrat is still a pass for investors. Citi analyst Alistair Syme doubts that the oil corporation can maintain its high dividend with declining oil sales.

“The dividend is undoubtedly the real question, or maybe more correctly the forward scenario that the company is adopting to underpin shareholder returns,” said Symes.

RBC Capital Pavel Molchanov wrote in a note to clients that Exxon’s high dividend yield can withstand extra debt.

“While we see the dividend as safe — if for no other reason than management’s desire to maintain S&P Aristocrat status — the cash flow outspend is colossal under current conditions,” wrote Molchanov.

ExxonMobil is undergoing a lot of turbulence, but is still one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 to buy and hold.

6. Chevron

In addition to ExxonMobil, Chevron is an oil giant that is struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic fallout. Despite diminished sales, Chevron’s dividend yield is still a healthy 6.15%.

Chevron Q2 2020 earnings down because of COVID-19

The oil company had a staggering $8.3 billion loss in the past quarter. Chevron CEO Pierre Breber spoke about the corporation’s disappointing Q2 2020 revenue report.

“Second quarter was a challenging one for the company. Financial results included $4.9 billion in special item net charges and a foreign exchange loss of over $400 million. Excluding special items and FX, the quarter resulted in a $3 billion loss or $1.59 per share,” said Breber.

Crude Oil Futures Price levels 1987 through2017
Crude Oil Futures Price levels 1987 through 2017 before coronavirus hurt Chevron as a dividend stock

Morningstar rates Chevron as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

Morningstar analyst Allen Good noted that Chevron is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 because of its expanded natural gas production.

“Although Chevron is an integrated energy company, its narrow economic moat rests on the quality of its upstream portfolio. Chevron’s upstream segment holds a low-cost position based on an evaluation of its oil- and gas-producing assets, using our exploration and production moat framework. Its greater exposure to liquids and liquids-linked natural gas production has produced peer-leading cash margins during the past five years,” said Good.

Good also noted Chevron’s expanded global oil exploration. The growth makes Chevron stock attractive to the financial expert.

“New production from its LNG projects Gorgon and Wheatstone, offshore oil developments in the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, and tight oil growth should preserve this exposure. We forecast that Chevron can deliver a midcycle cash operating margin of nearly $30 per barrel of oil equivalent, the highest in its peer group,” said Good.

Some analysts see Chevron stock as a sell despite dividend

While some analysts are bullish on Chevron stock, others are bearish on one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta was pleased with Chevron’s oil production.

“Production came in above our expectations, with volumes primarily beating our estimates on U.S. (both liquids and gas) and International liquids,” wrote Mehta in a note to clients.

While Mehta notes Chevron’s increased oil production as a plus, he thinks Chevron stock isn’t a buy.

“We [Goldman Sachs] see the absolute decline in [the] share price as a function of the collapse in oil demand and oil prices,” said Mehta.

Citi analyst Alistair Syme also doubts that Chevron’s worse-than-expected results mean that the corporation’s stock may tumble.

“2Q results show a picture that is perhaps not as resilient as the market thought it might be,” said Syme.

Chevron stock may be volatile because of COVID-19. However, Chevron is still one of the best dividend stocks of 2020.

7. Pfizer

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stock has an impressive dividend of 3.95%. The pharmaceutical company’s stock rose because of a promising COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer’s $11.8 billion revenue beat Wall Street expectations. The company’s CEO, Albert Boula, spoke about the potential coronavirus vaccine.

“We remain fully committed to confronting the public health challenge posed by the COVID-19 pandemic by collaborating with industry partners and academic institutions to develop potential approaches to prevent and treat COVID-19,” said Boula.

“Our researchers and scientists have made important progress toward developing an effective vaccine though significant additional work remains,” added Boula.

Some financial analysts rate Pfizer as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

Because of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine and high dividend, some financial experts rate the company’s stock as a buy.

Edward Jones analyst Ashtyn Evans noted that Pfizer’s other successful medications make the stock a buy. She said that Edward Jones’ “positive view of the stock is driven by the company’s extensive pipeline and lower valuation relative to peers.”

Morningstar rates Pfizer stock as a buy

Morningstar director Damien Conover cited Pfizer as one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 because of its impressive cash flow.

“Pfizer’s operating structure allows for cost-cutting following patent losses to reduce the margin pressure from lost high-margin drug sales. Overall, Pfizer’s established product line creates the enormous cash flows needed to fund the average $800 million in development costs per new drug. In addition, the company’s powerful distribution network sets up the company as a strong partner for smaller drug companies,” said Conover.

“Pfizer’s entrenched consumer and vaccine franchises create an added layer of competitive advantage”, added Conover.

Conover also noted that Pfizer is one of the best dividend stocks “stemming from brand power in consumer healthcare and manufacturing cost advantages in the vaccines division. Pfizer recently created a consumer healthcare joint venture with GlaxoSmithKline that could lead to an eventual divestment of the unit.”

Pfizer’s impressive cash flow and potential profits from its COVID-19 vaccine make Pfizer one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 and beyond.

8. Coca-Cola

While Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO) stock dropped because of the coronavirus crisis, the beverage company has one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. Coke’s dividend yield of 3.47% should be impressive to investors.

Coke’s chief financial officer, John Murphy, spoke about Coke’s net profit decline to $1.78 billion.

“Organic revenues declined 26%, driven by a 22% decline in concentrate shipments and a 4% decline in price/mix,” said Murphy.

Financial experts rate Coke stock as a buy

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Johnson believes Coca-Cola can withstand the current economic volatility.

“At a high level, we believe there are characteristics endemic to the nonalcoholic beverage industry more generally, as well as Coca-Cola’s specific positioning within this industry, that result in a competitively advantaged business,” said Johnson.

Coca-Cola stock is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020

“While the company is disproportionately exposed to beverage categories that are in secular decline, we believe it has the brand equity to induce demand for reformulated variants of its most popular trademarks, the resources to reorient its portfolio toward drink categories that are more consistent with the consumer ethos, and the scale to fulfill these endeavors profitably,” added Johnson.

In addition to Morningstar, HSBC analyst Carlos Laboy said that Coke stock is undervalued. He also believes that Coke bottlers are “poised to accelerate their growth contribution [to Coca-Cola’s profits] as they grow into market developers with better tools and a richer service culture.”

Coca-Cola is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 because of its cash flow and resilience through economic downturns.

9. Home Depot

As the coronavirus pandemic hurt many corporations, Home Depot’s (NYSE:HD) sales rose. The corporation’s stores helped many people who were homebound in the spring. Home Depot’s Q1 2020 revenue jumped 7% to $28.26 billion. The company’s 2.27% dividend yield makes it a good divident stock to buy for investors. Home Depot’s CEO, Craig Menear, spoke about the company’s results.

“As the COVID-19 pandemic evolved, we anchored to the core values of our Company by focusing on two key priorities: working to ensure the safety and well-being of our associates and customers, and providing our customers and communities with essential products,” said Menear in a statement.

“We took early and decisive action to intentionally limit customer traffic in our stores which we believe had a significant impact to sales in many markets,” added Menear.

Home Depot is one of the best dividend stock to financial experts

Brian Nagel is the senior equity research analyst at Oppenheimer. He believes that Home Depot is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. He thinks that Home Depot benefited from the recent nationwide quarantine.

“I think Home Depot is one of the companies that is benefiting or really capitalizing, performing well through this Covid-19 crisis and is likely to perform well as the crisis headwinds abate,” said Nagel.

“More people are spending more time in their homes, and you’re seeing that increase spend as more people spend more time working on their houses,” added Nagel.

Jefferies equity analyst Jonathan Matuszewski noted that Home Depot should improve in its next earnings report because of Memorial Day sales.

“Given HD’s commentary, it will be key to understand the maintenance or potential loosening of such actions heading into the typically-promotional Memorial Day Weekend,” said Matuszewski.

“If the home improvement centers can constrain incremental expenses to meet outsized traffic while still protecting customers/employees, EPS[earnings per share] should improve,” added Matuszewski.

Home Depot is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020 because of its service to customers through the COVID-19 pandemic.

10. Merck

In addition to Pfizer, Merck is a pharmaceutical company that is one of the best dividend stocks of 2020. Mercks’s dividend yield of 3.16% is impressive to investors.

Merck’s Q2 2020 revenue dropped to $10.87 billion because of the COVID-19 crisis. CEO Ken Frazier spoke about the results.

“As expected, social distancing measures in many regions negatively impacted second-quarter volumes for many of our products. However, customer access to care is steadily improving, including in our portfolio of vaccines, which was hit particularly hard this quarter,” said Frazier.

Merck expects revenue to improve as it develops a COVID-19 vaccine.

“Both vaccine candidates will soon enter the clinic and we have begun investing to facilitate our ability to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses,” said Frazier. 

Financial experts say Merck stock is a buy

Morningstar director Damien Conover is bullish on Merck stock. He noted that Merck’s patents make the company one of the best dividend stocks of 2020.

“Patents, economies of scale, and a powerful intellectual base buoy Merck’s business and keep it well shielded from the competition. Patent protection should continue to keep competitors at bay while the company strives to introduce the next generation of drugs,” said Conover.

Conover also commented that Merck’s cash flow makes the pharma company’s stock a buy.

“Further, the company’s enormous cash flows support a powerful salesforce that not only sells currently marketed drugs but also serves as a deterrent,” said Conover.

“As a result, Merck offers a powerful partnership opportunity for externally developed drugs. The cash flows also put the company in the rare position of supporting the approximately $800 million in research and development,” added Conover.

For investors that want a strong pharma stock with good dividends, Merck is an excellent choice.

The best dividend stocks of 2020 show resilience

While 2020 has been a brutal year for many stocks, dividend stocks have proven resilient. With strong cash flows and reliable quarterly payouts, investors can rest assured with these stocks in their portfolios. With TradingSim’s blogs and charts, investors can find the best dividend stocks of 2020 to buy and hold.

impact of coronavirus on stock market crash 2020

The recent weeks have been the scene of a worldwide health crisis that has drastically impacted the stock markets and global economic growth. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) spread from China into a worldwide pandemic and caused an unprecedented stock market crash in February 2020. The S&P 500 has experienced a collapse of about 35.5% in almost 30 days. As has said Joseph Stiglitz, Chief Economist at the World Bank,

This is a different kind of crisis than normal crises. It’s just not a problem of aggregate demand.

We will discuss the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on global economies, and ultimately how this pandemic was responsible for the 2020 stock market crash. I will focus on the following:

  • Lessons learned, expectations, and projections of this crisis, not only on the stock market but also on world economies.
  • We will also analyze the potential changes that will appear in the aftermath of the crisis.
  • Reactions of governments and international institutions in response to the crisis.
  • Finally, we will present the reaction of some advanced economies to this health crisis.

Before discussing these points, let us first talk about how the COVID-19 pandemic started and how it spreads the world.

What are the main causes of COVID-19 pandemic and how does it happen?

Several scientific papers document that the coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1930s in domestic poultry and usually cause respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver, and neurological diseases in animals. Only 7 coronaviruses are known to cause disease in humans. Four of the 7 coronaviruses most often cause cold symptoms. The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing pandemic characterized by acute, sometimes severe respiratory disease in humans. This is caused by a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

There exist other kinds of coronaviruses such as MERS-CoV which was identified in 2012 in the Middle East, while SARS-CoV-1 was identified earlier in different regions around the world. The new Coronavirus that the world is experiencing is an advanced version of the SARS-CoV-1. It was identified in December 2019, in the city of Wuhan, in China. According to the international society of infectious diseases (ProMED), more than 677 570 cases have been identified in the U.S.A, on April 16, 2020, with a mortality rate of 5.1%. The situation is nowadays less pronounced in China.

The COVID-19 has been characterized by Zhu, Zang & Wang (2019) and they show that SARS-CoV-2 is 75 to 80% identical to SARS-CoV and is closely related to bat coronaviruses.  That’s why bats are considered as the primary vector for the virus. It can also be identified in animals like cats, camels, and cattle. This is usually called zoonotic transmission. According to researchers, a large majority of people who got the disease early on were linked to a live seafood and animal market in China.

What are the mechanisms of the Coronavirus transmission from one to another?

The first cases of COVID-19 may come from animals sold in the market and has mainly spread from person to person (see Sabir, Lam, Ahmed et al. (2016)). Usually, SARS-COV-2 spreads when an ill person coughs or sneezes. Sick persons can emit saliva from their mouth at 6 feet from their position. If you inhale them, it is possible to get the virus and get sick.

Another way to get the virus can come from touching an infected object or an infected person and therefore touch your mouth or nose. Several papers demonstrate that the COVID-19 can live for more than 4 hours on different types of objects. We can notice a lifetime of 4 hours on Coppers, 24 hours on Cardboards, and up to 3 days on Plastics.

Researchers have also documented Airborne transmission (demonstrating that the virus can live in the air for 3 hours and if you breathe the infected air, you can get the virus) and fecal-oral transmission (showing that virus particles can be founded in sick people’s poop).

Studies have also documented the possibility to get infected by COVID-19 even if one has not traveled or has not been exposed to a sick person and it’s not possible to identify the source of the infection. This is usually called the “community spread”. These cases have been identified in California.

There are also people who do not manifest the symptoms of the virus but can also be a vector of transmission. The risk of infection of the Coronavirus can increase with age. Children are less likely to be exposed to the virus, while people of over 65 are most likely to get severely sick. Also, people working or living in hospitals, or having a weak immune system are highly exposed to diseases. For example, people suffering from severe obesity, diabetes, asthma, cancer, heart diseases, etc.

What is the current situation of the coronavirus pandemic around the world?

According to the website Worldometers, at the date of April 17, 2020, more than 2,232,627 cases of COVID-19 have been identified with 153,296 deaths and 568,231 recoveries, which represents a mortality rate of 6.8% and a recovery rate of about 25.4%. The statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO) are slightly similar. Up to 113 countries, areas, or territories are concerned by the virus.

Europe and North America are the most affected zones in the world with 45% and 33.5% of confirmed global cases respectively, while Africa and Oceania are the less affected continents representing 0.9% and 0.35% of the global cases respectively. Even if Asia is the continent where the virus took-off, it’s only the third continent affected by this virus, representing only 15.9% of the global cases.

In terms of deaths, Europe and North America registered the largest number of death in the world which represents 62.4% and 25.5% of the total deaths respectively. In contrast, Africa and Oceania registered the lowest number of deaths, which is 0.66% and 0.05% of the total number of deaths respectively.

impact of coronavirus on stock market 2020
Table 1: Comparison of the number of cases and deaths per continent (our calculations with the data of the website www.worldometer.info, April 17, 2020).

United States of America (USA) is the most widely affected country registering 31.3% of the total cases in the world and 24.1% of the total number of deaths.  It is followed by Spain (8.4% of the total number of cases and 12.7% of the total number of deaths) and Italy (7.7% of the global number of cases and 14.8% of the global number of deaths).

We can also notice that 7 of the 10 most-affected countries in the world are from Europe, two are from Asia and the USA is the only one representing significantly the whole American continent. Ten countries represent 77.5% of the total number of confirmed cases in the world with 86.7% of deaths registered in the world.

impact of coronavirus on stock market 2020
Table 2: Comparison of the number of cases and deaths for the 10 most-affected countries (our calculations with the data of the website www.worldometer.info, April 17, 2020).

Concerning the distribution of COVID-19 since December 31, 2019 to April 17, 2020, it can be observed that the number of confirmed cases has experienced an exponential evolution with an upward sloping shape from December 31, 2019 to April 01, 2020 but started to flatten since the beginning of April as reported in the following figure by the European Centre for disease prevention and control.

Statistics on Coronavirus worldwide
Figure 1: Distribution of COVID-19 cases, worldwide, up to  April 18, 2020 (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control )

In contrast, the number of deaths is still displaying an exponential evolution and the most represented countries are Europe, Asia, and America.

Statistics on Coronavirus worldwide 2020
Figure 2: Distribution of COVID-19 deaths, worldwide, up to  April 18, 2020 (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control )

At the worldwide level, we are still on the upward sloping shape either in terms of the total number of cases or in terms of the number of deaths.

Statistics on Coronavirus worldwide
Figure 3: Evolution of the COVID-19, Worldwide, up to April 18, 2020 (www.worldometer.info).

How has the Coronavirus pandemic affected the Stock Market and world economies?

With the outbreak of COVID-19, global stock markets have experienced a severe crash, beginning February 20, 2020 and lasting thru March 23, 2020. This global market crash is comparable to the Great depression in 1929, in the USA. Starting February 20, stock markets around the world registered the largest weekly decline since 2008. Global demand shocks and the crashing oil markets (due to the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia due to Russia’s refusal to curb oil production) has been another catalyst that led to a serious increase in the volatility and reaction in the stock market.

With the multiple risk factors of the Coronavirus pandemic, almost all the countries in the world have decided to impose a massive worldwide lockdown in order to enforce social distancing. A large majority of companies have shut down with employees working from home. Only some essential services are open to the public such as groceries, restaurants with delivery services or curbside pickup, hospitals, and doctors offices.

When taking a look at the main observed indexes in the global stock market, we can observe that the S&P 500 observed a drop of about 35% in almost 1 month. The Dow Jones has experienced a drop of 36%, which is approximately 10760 points loss for the period February 20 to March 23rd, 2020. The CAC 40 and Dax 30 are under pressure in Europe dropped by almost the same rate, which is 38% in the same period. The FTSE 100 in Japan has reported a collapse of 30%, while in India, the Nifty index dropped by almost 50%.

impact of coronavirus pandemic on S&P 500, DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC40
Figure 4: Evolution of the most observed indexes in the stock market during the crash 2020 (Google Finance)

The volatility index (VIX) has exploded and increased 432% during that period, signaling total panic in the markets. This explosion of the volatility was rapidly followed by a quick drop starting by March 23, 2020.

impact of coronavirus pandemic on dow jones and vix
Figure 5: Evolution of the VIX and Dow Jones during the stock market crash 2020 (Google Finance)

The airline sector has suffered tremendously. Airline companies around the world have canceled their flights. Shares of United Airlines and Delta Airline were down by more than 50%.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), reported that worldwide airline passenger traffic will fall by 48% for this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. Projections estimate losses of $314 billion in revenues due to the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, as business travel demand dropS and government travel restrictions increase. More specifically, Asia is projecting a loss of 50%, while Europe and America are estimating a 55% and 36% loss in passenger traffic compared to the third quarter of 2019, respectively.

Additionally, the World Trade Organization is projecting in the best-case scenario of about 12.9% and the worst-case scenario a drop of 31.9% in air cargo volume for this year. Furthermore, the industry is experiencing a liquidity crunch, with a cash burn of about $61 billion for the second quarter of 2020.

impact of coronavirus on the airline transport
Figure 6: Global trade forecast points to a steep decline in air cargo volume (World Trade Organization (WTO), IATA Economics, 09 April 2020).

In contrast to the airline industry, essential industries, are more resilient to the 2020 stock market crash. As essential industries, we have Health care, Food, basic transportation. Indeed, goods and services produced in these industries are more inelastic in the sense that the aggregate demand does not change significantly even if the economy is in recession.

For example, Vertex Pharmaceutical (VRTX) has reported an increase of 24% since January 2020. On the same line Walmart (WMN) and Kroger (KR) have gained an increase of 12.25% and 11.45% in the same period respectively.

Stocks that perform during the stock market crash
Figure 7: Some resilient stocks during the stock market crash 2020 (Google Finance)

Additionally, even if online-based companies such as Zoom (ZM), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), eBay (EBAY) have been impacted by the crash during the period February 20 – March 23, those companies have reported a quick recovery of their drawdown.  For example, Zoom (ZM) has gained an increase of 42% since the beginning of the 2020 stock market crash. At the same time, Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) have gained 10.31% and 9.52% respectively. The other stocks I mentioned also follow the same pattern.

Where are we now and what can we expect going forward for world economies ?

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will experience the worst recession since the great depression and this is the first time where developed economies and developing countries are in a recession.

Indeed, with great lockdown, the world economy may expect a decrease of global growth rates by almost 3% during the second quarter of 2020, representing a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, which is 30 times the effect observed during the global financial crisis in 2008 – 2009. These projections assume that the majority of countries in the world will experience their peak in terms of pandemic spread during that period.

In the best-case scenario in which the pandemic widespread is efficiently controlled, it can be projected that the United States, Eurozone, and Japan will experience a decrease of their GDP growth rate by 6%, 8%, and 5% respectively, while China and India might be the beneficiary of this crisis, reporting a positive GDP growth rate of almost 2% in 2020 (see IMF world Economic Outlook ).

In the worst-case scenario with more uncertainty in the controlling procedure of the health crisis, one may expect an additional loss of 3 percent for this year and eventually a fall of the world GDP growth rate of 8% in 2021 if the virus persists and this with hurt the financial conditions of all the countries around the world with the drastic increase of the global unemployment rate. These results were expected as it has been documented by Wang, Yang & Chen (2012).

Indeed, the authors document that a contagious disease doesn’t only affect the health and lives of people but also leads to economic growth stagnation, but it can produce abnormal returns in the biotechnology sector. On the same line, the European Commission produced a previous report estimating the macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe using a quarterly macroeconomic model (see Jonung and Roeger (2006)). Indeed, the European Commission shows that the effect could experience a GDP growth rate drop in the range of 1.6% – 4.1%. Similar studies have been done for the United States, Canada, Germany.

impact of a pandemic on Macroeconomics
Table 3: Estimated output losses due to future pandemic (Jonung and Roeger (2006)).

Concerning Sub-Saharan Africa countries, it is expected that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a decrease in the GDP growth rate and that could reach the range of -2.1 to -5.1% in 2020. This is evaluated as an output loss between $37 billion and $79 billion, including trade and value chain. Additionally, this crisis could affect also the food security by reducing agricultural production by up to 7% and a decrease of good importation by up to 25% (See World Bank press release  April 9, 2020). The oil exploitation and tourism sector have been also affected due to the severe reduction of external demand.

What are the expected long term major changes in the economy?

With the object of respecting the social distancing, the great lockdown has imposed a large majority of the population to stay at home. This sudden stop of the economy has pushed people to seek new ways to connect and hang out with their family and friends and even to connect with business partners.

On the same line, companies are looking for new ways to run their business.  Video chat is taking off especially in America and Europe. For example, applications such as Google Duo, Nexdor, and Houseparty are experiencing a huge increase in their traffic (see Similarweb).

Indeed, these applications have gained an increase of 12%, 73%, and 79% respectively, in daily traffic since January 2020.  On the same line, the new way to teach classes in schools is by using applications such as Zoom, Google Classroom, Microsoft Teams, Google Hangouts.

On the other hand, applications for delivery services such as Uber Eats, GrubHub, Delivery.com, Postmates, DoorDash, Caviar have also gained in terms of usage as the on-demand food is expected to increase and be a $365bn industry.

Applications for entertainment such as Facebook, Youtube, Netflix, and Whatsapp have also gained in terms of utilization. We expected that these internet activities will increase significantly in the aftermath of the crisis.

How to fix the 2020 stock market crash according to the economic theory and what are the government’s reactions?

As we already know, the infectious diseases do not affect only the health and lives of peoples but also the whole economy of all countries around the world, we expected governments to react at the macroeconomic level and response proportionally to the sectors suffering from this Health and Economic crisis. More specifically policymakers should think about not only monetary policies but also policies encouraging public spending in order to encourage the private sector to produce but also to stimulate aggregate consumption.

Indeed, according to the popular Taylor rule, in order to encourage production, Central banks should cute the interest rate so that private firms can take more credit and invest more and therefore recruit more employees. By increasing of employment rate it will lead to an increase in consumption. To boost more this approach, Central banks usually print more money in the economy by buying assets from the private banks and short term bonds from governments. This is called quantitative easing.

These strategies become more important when it is observed that the short term interest rate is closed to zero.  This is the situation that most of the advanced economies are experiencing.  Indeed, the interest rate in the United States and Canada is almost the same and is currently evaluated at 0.25%. We can observe lower rates and even negative rates in Europe. For example, the short term interest rate in France was reported at -0.36% in March 2020. Almost the same rate is observed in Italy, Germany, and other countries in the EURO Zone.

Additionally, policymakers in advanced economies have planned a recovery strategy which is mainly based on implementing a fiscal stimulus program. The main goal of this policy is to guarantee that even if there is a drastic increase in the unemployment rate, the aggregate consumption in the economy is sustained at a certain level. Currently, the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have already decided the amount to deploy for this program. For example, in the United States, Congress decided for a budget of $2.3 trillion stimulus bill to address the COVID-19 pandemic. In Canada, the budget for this purpose is evaluated at $75 billion.  The main idea of this fiscal program is to offer a direct cash payment of $2000 per month during the pandemic period to all eligible persona and small businesses. In France, the package is evaluated at $49 billion, while in the United Kingdom the government is promising a budget of $430 billion and $810 billion in Germany. 

Aside, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning a lending capacity of $1 trillion to support the different vulnerable countries from this crisis and are encouraging official bilateral creditors to support their partners for these circumstances. Indeed, some bilateral creditors have prolonged the payment deadline of poor countries in response to this crisis Furthermore in direction of the developing countries and especially for sub-Saharan Africa countries, the World Bank deployed up to $160 billion in financial support for the next 15 months to reinforce their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This financial support is mainly oriented to help vulnerable businesses and improve the public health reaction.

Conclusion

The pandemic is still ongoing and the uncertainty of the world economy and the stock markets is huge for these recent weeks. Even if we started to see a recovery in the stock market, the panic is still in the market with overreactions of market participants.

The airline industry is one of the most affected sectors while the biotechnology and tech industries are less affected. Moreover, China and India are the countries that will benefit the most from this crisis.

The governments in the advanced economies are already implementing the stimulus package. The problem is that this policy can only hold in the short term and not in the long term. This means that if there is more uncertainty in the world in terms of this pandemic duration, the economy can suffer more and we can have a second phase of the world recession and stock market crash.

Another concern is the capacity of developing countries to address this health crisis and economy recession as their economy is highly dependent on the importation, tourism, and oil price.

In overall, it is expected that all the countries would definitely experience a significant increase in the economy digitalization.