5 Minute Charts Explanation and Guide + Three Free Setups

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In this article, we will cover everything you need to know about 5-minute charts. First, we will touch on the basics of the 5-minute chart. Next, we will move onto two popular chart patterns using the 5-minute charts. Lastly, we will cover advanced trading techniques of combining indicators and multiple time frames.

5-Minute Bar Definition

5-minute charts illustrate the summary of a stock’s activity for every 5-minute period within the trading session.  The core market session is 6.5 hours per day [1]; therefore, a 5-minute chart will have 78 five minute bars printed for every full trading session. 

Day traders are commonly trading 5-minute charts to identify short-term trends and execute their trading strategy of choice.

Where to Select the 5-Minute Time Frame

Most trading applications will allow you to select the time frame to analyze price data. Within the Tradingsim platform, you can select the 5-minute interval directly above the chart.

How to Select 5 minute candles
Select 5 Minutes

The close on 5-minute charts gives insight into the immediate market direction of the trend for a stock.  When a stock closes at the low or high of the 5-minute bar, there is often a short-term breather where the stock will go in the opposite direction. 

The psychology behind this is that the stock has been pushed to an extreme as other active traders chase the price trend. This breather can mark a major reversal, but in the majority of cases, it creates the environment for a counter move.

How Do You Trade 5 Minute Charts?

Bar any exhaustive scientific studies, we would dare to say the 5-minute chart is one of the most popular time frames for day traders.

5-minutes provides you with the right mix of monitoring the details, without scalping, and conversely allowing you to avoid waiting for 10, 15, 30 or 60-minutes to pull the trigger as well.

It’s that fine line where most traders feel comfortable within this time unit of measure. It also quietens the noise of 1 and 2 minute charts.

Now, let’s dive into a few strategies you can use with this time frame.

The Morning Reversal Strategy

Most of the liquidity and trading activity in the market occurs in the morning and near the close [2].

In the morning, stocks will trend hard for the first 20-30 minutes into the 10 am reversal time zone. Day traders that are looking to go opposite to the trend can wait for a close at the high or low of the 5-minute bar to go opposite to the morning move.

The morning reversal short has a high success rate. There is something about the retail trading market in the morning that brings a fresh batch of bag holders chasing the market for quick gains every morning.

The smart money will grab the breakout and ride the market for quick profits. However, new traders will either hold on too long or jump on the bandwagon too late, perhaps on a breakout that fails like this OCUP example below:

Bearish Engulfing Morning Reversal on 5 minute charts
Bearish Engulfing Morning Reversal

The 5-minute chart time frame is often too large to capture the volatility of the move heading into the 10 am reversal. This can be a blessing or a curse depending on how you like to trade.

Candlestick Patterns Can Help

Notice that in the example given above with OCUP the failed breakout candle on the 5 minute chart is a bearish engulfing candle.

We won’t go into great detail on these strategies in this article, but we have a great resource for identifying bullish patterns and bearish candlestick patterns on the site.

Let’s review another chart example of a morning reversal where the stock climbs higher, only to reverse lower. This pattern is actually more common than you would think.

Morning Reversal Strategy
Morning Reversal

This is the 5-minute morning reversal you are going to see most often. There is a slight pop in the morning and then after a move higher, a sharp reaction lower.

As you can see from the spinning top at the 6th 5 minute bar of the day, we have supply entering the market. We then get a breakout from that level that fails — a great opportunity to get short.

As always, treat trading 5-minute charts in the morning seriously, especially on the short side. Always put your stops in.

Trading Breakouts

In addition to pullback trades, breakout trades are also a big part of active trading. For these setups, you want to find stocks that are up considerably in the pre-market or with volume right off the open.

Next, you want to make sure they have little to no overhead resistance.

If you are open to more risk and would like to reap more rewards, then you will want to set your eyes on low float stocks.

If you are looking to play things a little safer, then look to stocks with a float north of 100 million shares.

But no matter your risk appetite, the key to success is cutting your losers and letting your winners run.

5 Minute Chart Morning Breakout Example 1:

Morning Breakout of 5 Minute Chart
Morning Breakout of 5 Minute Chart

If you trade pre-market, then your range can develop in the early am and you could be in a trade as early as 9:31 in the morning. However, if you do not use pre-market data, you will want to focus on the opening range.

You might also find a solid breakout strategy using our small account building setup.

Next, you want a stock with volume that can push the price higher [3].

Lastly, you shouldn’t fall in love with these high flyers. Most of them will run their course in ten to thirty minutes.

So, remember to keep your stops tight and to take profits as the stock goes higher.

5 Minute Chart Morning Breakdown Example:

5 Minute chart breakdown
5 Minute chart breakdown

These breakout trades also work on short positions. In the above chart, notice how VLON broke down after already having a strong gap to the downside.

After a while, certain patterns will emerge that you can use to improve the accuracy of the trades you place.

In the next section, we are going to go beyond chart patterns and dig into various indicators you can use with 5-minute charts to find profitable setups.

How to Enter and Exit Trades on a 5-Minute Chart with Oscillators and Fast Lines

Oscillators do just that, they oscillate between high and low extremes.

Yet, oscillators give many fake signals.

According to Martha Stokes, CMT from technitrader.com,

“Most traders are told to use Stochastic as an Overbought exit or sell short signal, and an Oversold entry or buy signal. This simplistic approach worked well prior to the 1990s and the advent of electronic trading plus massive institutional trading activity. However, this is far too simple an approach for the faster-paced more dynamic and complex marketplace of today, where short term trading dominates more than ever.” [4]

Since they are leading indicators, oscillators point out that a trend might emerge, but it is no guarantee.

For this reason, oscillators are one of the most attractive tools for day traders as timing is of the essence.

Nevertheless, if not used properly, they often lead to failure. Therefore, we recommend combining two oscillators when trading on a 5-minute timeframe in order to validate trade signals.

Personally, we like oscillators only for trade entry and not trade management.

Therefore, we recommend you include a fast line on your chart in order to attain exit points on 5-minute stock charts. Some of these lines could be a regular Moving Average, DEMA, TEMA, Hull MA, Least Squares MA, Arnaud Legoux MA, etc.

In this section, we will cover 3 simple strategies you can use with 5-minute charts and indicators.

Strategy #1 – Stochastic Oscillator + RSI + Triple EMA

This simple strategy uses a three-pronged approach across two oscillators and an on-chart moving average indicator.

Entering a Trade

Trade entry signals are generated when the stochastic oscillator and relative strength index provide confirming signals.

Trade Exit

You should exit the trade once the price closes beyond the TEMA in the opposite direction of the primary trend.

There are many cases when candles move partially beyond the TEMA line. We disregard such exit points and we exit the market when the price fully breaks the TEMA. Have a look at the example below:

5-minute chart with oscillators
5-minute chart with oscillators

This is the 5-minute chart of General Motors. The two instruments at the bottom of the chart are the Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI. The TEMA is the green curved line on the chart. The green pairs of circles are the moments when we get both entry signals.

How to Use the Indicators

First, we spot overbought signals from the RSI and the stochastic and we enter the trade when the stochastic lines have a bearish crossover. We go short and we follow the bearish activity for 15 full periods, which is a relatively long period of time for a day trader. Good for us!

We exit the trade once the price closes above the TEMA. This short position generated a profit of $0.43 (43 cents) per share, which is a decent amount even for advanced trading strategies.

Later, we receive a few more overbought/oversold signals from the stochastic, but they are not confirmed by the RSI. Thus, we stay out of the market until the next RSI signal.

Our second trade comes when the RSI enters the oversold area just for a moment. This long signal is confirmed by the stochastic, so we go long. The bullish move that ensued is minor, but still in our favor!

We hold this trade for 9 periods before closing the position. We exit the market when a bigger bearish candle closes below the TEMA with its full body. This long trade brought us a profit of $0.09 (9 cents) per share.

On the next day, we manage to identify another long signal from the stochastic and the RSI.

We hold the long position open for 14 periods before one of the bearish candles on the way up close below the TEMA. This long position generated a profit of $0.46 (46 cents) per share.

Strategy Results

  • 3 Positions
  • 2 long
  • 1 short
  • Time in the market: 3 hours and 10 minutes
  • Total profit: $0.98 (98 cents) per share

Strategy #2 – MACD + MFI

For this next strategy, we will combine the Moving Average Convergence Divergence with the Money Flow Index. We will enter the market when we receive confirming signals of the MACD and the MFI.

However, for how long will we hold the trades?

Notice that in this stock trading setup we have no on-chart trading indicator for identifying exit points.

The reason for this is that the MACD does a pretty good job of this itself.  We will simply exit the market whenever the MACD has a crossover in the opposite direction!

Notice that when using the MACD for exit points, you stay in the market for a longer period of time.

5-minute chart + MACD + MFI
5-minute chart + MACD + MFI

This is the 5-minute chart of McDonald’s for Sep 30, 2015. The two instruments at the bottom of the chart are the MACD and the Money Flow Index. The green circles indicate the entry signals we receive from the two indicators. The red circles indicate the moment when the MACD tells us to get out of the market.

Notice that in this example, the exit point of a position is the entry point of the next one. Thus, the red and the green circles match in three cases.

How to Use the Indicators

In the first trade, we have matching bearish entry signals from the MFI and the MACD. We short McDonald’s.

Although there is strong hesitation in the price movement, no exit signal is provided from the MACD and we hold our position. Later on, the price moves in our favor and we close the trade when the MACD has a bullish crossover. We were short for 34 periods and generate a profit of $0.33 (33 cents).

As we said, in this strategy example, we often open a contrary position right after closing the trade. Therefore, once we received the exit crossover from the MACD, the MFI gave us a long signal.

We stay in the market for 36 periods until the MACD gives us a bearish crossover. We collect a profit of $0.56 (56 cents) per share from this trade – slightly better than the previous example.

The MFI is already high and we immediately open a short position after the MACD crossover from the previous position. McDonald’s starts to move in our favor, but the direction changes rapidly. Yet, the two lines of the MACD interact, but they do not create a crossover. Thus, we hold our short position for 39 periods.

In this trade, we accumulated a profit of $0.81 (81 cents) per share – much better!

With the exit of the previous position came the entry point for the next trade. This is so because the MFI was already down when the MACD exit crossover appeared. Thus, we go long and we enter the best trade of the four! We hold McDonald’s for 27 periods before the MACD gives us a bearish crossover. This long position generated a profit of $0.88 (88 cents) per share. Well, that my friend is a good trade!

Strategy Results

  • 4 Positions
  • 2 long
  • 2 short
  • Time in the market: 11 hours and 20 minutes
  • Total profit: $2.58 per share

Strategy #3 – Klinger Oscillator + RVI + 12-Period Least Squares MA

This 5-minute chart strategy involves the Klinger Oscillator and the Relative Vigor index for setting entry points. We try to match long and short signals with the two oscillators, which will be an indication to trade the equity. When we get these two signals, we open a position and we hold it until we see a candle closing beyond the 12-period LSMA.

5-minute chart + KO + RVI + LSMA
5-minute chart + KO + RVI + LSMA

This is the 5-minute chart of Yahoo. The two instruments at the bottom are the RVA and the Klinger. The blue curved line on the chart is the 12-period LSMA. On this chart, we have four trades. The green circles show the four pairs of signals we get from the RVA and the Klinger.

How to Use the Indicators

First, we get a bullish signal from the Klinger, which is confirmed by the RVA after 4 periods. When we get the confirmation, we go long. We manage to hold the trade for four candles before we see a bearish candle below the LSMA. We get $0.10 (10 cents) per share from this trade.

Four periods later, the Klinger and the RVA give us bearish signals at once and we go short. We get a slight bearish move of four periods before a candle closes below the LSMA. We generate $0.12 (12 cents) per share more.

The third trade is the most successful one.

Six periods after the previous position, we get matching bullish signals from the Klinger and the RVA. Thus, we go long with Yahoo. We manage to stay for 9 periods in this trade before a candle closes with its full body below the 12-period LSMA.

Notice that at the end of the bullish move, there is another bearish candle, which closes below the LSMA, but not with its full body. Therefore, we disregard it as an exit signal. This long position brings us a profit of $0.37 (37 cents) per share.

With the next candle, we get bearish signals from the RVA and the Klinger and we go short with the closing of the previous long position. We get out of this trade after 5 periods when a bigger bullish candle closes above the LSMA. This trade generated a profit of only $0.03 (3 cents) per share.

Strategy Results

  • 4 Positions
  • 2 long
  • 2 short
  • Time in the market: 2 hours and 10 minutes
  • Total profit: $0.62 (62 cents) per share

Which 5-minute bar trading setup is better?

The trading strategy we prefer when trading 5-minute charts is the MACD + MFI. The reason for this is that this strategy distributes the trading along the entire trading day.

In the example above, we covered the whole day with only 4 trades. Furthermore, we generated an impressive amount per share!

In the other two strategies, the number of trades per day will be significantly more. As you see with MACD + MFI, we traded 4 positions for 11 hours, while with Klinger, RVI, and LSMA, we traded 4 positions for only 2 hours.

Yet, some of you will like fast-paced trading and will like to exit the market more frequently. Just remember in trading, more effort does not equal more money.

Using Multiple Timeframes

One thing you will want to do with 5 -minute charts is to use multiple time frames to help support your point of view.

In reality, 5-minute charts are great for stocks with lower volatility. However, if you are trading low float stocks you will want to use a one-minute or two-minute chart to track price movement.

While you are monitoring price movement on a lower level, you will also need to monitor the bigger trends.

To do this, you will want to look at a daily or hourly chart.

So, when you are setting up your trading desk, have multiple charts up of the same stock. Below is a screenshot from Tradingsim of an example of how you need to view stocks on multiple time frames.

Multi-time Frame View
Multi-time Frame View

In the above chart, notice how VLON has three time frames, 2-minute, 5-minute and daily.

The 5-minute chart is your anchor and was showing a consolidation was taking place. The two-minute chart also displayed a similar consolidation pattern.

Lastly, the daily chart shows that after a nice run-up, VLDN was starting to stabilize after a retracement of the rally.

So, in this example, as a trader, the big thing you are looking for is alignment of the same narrative across multiple time frames.

Summary

Even if you are not trading 5-minute charts, it is essential that you keep an eye on them.  The majority of day traders are using 5-minute charts to make their trading decisions.  Therefore, these traders tend to control the action. 

If you are trading with 15-minute charts, be mindful that a sharp counter-trend move can occur at the close of a 5-minute bar.

Remember, a close at the high or low of a 5-minute bar is a potential indication that a minor reversal is in play.  Day traders should not immediately exit their winning position but should rather look at this as a sign of a potential trend change.

Be sure to study candlestick patterns to help with your strategies.

Also, the morning is where all the action takes place in the market. If you are going to trade during this time of day, remember the two most common setups – pull back and the breakout.

Lastly, 5-minute charts can’t do it all by themselves. You will need to assist help from other time frames. The one minute chart for very volatile stocks and the daily charts to identify long-term trends for support and resistance levels.

External References

  1. Holidays and Trading Volumes. New York Stock Exchange
  2. Lee, Justina and Peterseil, Yakob. (2019).Wall Street Fights Stock Machines With Trend-Chasing on Steroids. Bloomberg.com
  3. Sincere, Michael. (2011). ‘Start Day Trading Now: A Quick and Easy Introduction to Making Money While Managing Your Risk‘. Simon & Schuster. p. 41
  4. Stokes CMT, Martha. (2015). ‘How To Use Stochastic Ideally‘. Seeking Alpha.com

VWAP Boulevard has become all the rage in the fintwit community lately. Discovered, named, and taken mainstream by Twitter phenom @team3dstocks, thousands of day traders are now implementing this strategy to trade momentum stocks. In this post, we’ll uncover the long and short of the strategy, plus offer a few helpful real-life vwap boulevard trading examples.

If you’re unfamiliar with the basics of vwap, you might start with our Ultimate Guide to VWAP first. Also be sure to check out our complimentary articles on the Kill Candle and 1-3pm Bloodbath.

As a primer to the content below, watch this quick YouTube tutorial where we use our VWAP Boulevard drawing tool in TradingSim to practice this strategy!


The Mysterious Man Behind VWAP Boulevard

With any good strategy, an edge in the market starts with backtesting. You can either pay for the data and analyze it, or you can spend years collecting your own data as you trade.

Fintwit personality @team3dstocks, who goes by AllDayFaders, is the man who discovered the vwap boulevard strategy through years of collecting his own datasets.

Reading his Twitter posts are lot like getting a noogie from the uncle whose standards you know you can’t live up to. It hurts, the delivery’s a little crass, but you know it’s all true.

Other times, he’s like the older brother or dad you want to imitate. The successful one, giving you the advice you know you need to hear.

Ultimately, he’s very active and benevolent in the daytrading world, doling out his nuggets of wisdom only at the expense of your ego. So be sure to frame your questions wisely, he’s backed up 6 months in responding to his DMs.

In truth, a lot of his posts, especially the #beartipoftheday, can be very helpful and encouraging to anyone striving to be a consistent trader:

How It Got Started

When asked how he finally stumbled upon the strategy, he says “each time a low float ticker had the audacity to hit the scanners, I would add it to my database, then pick it apart after hours.”

“Like a mad scientist,” he goes on to say.

Excel spreadsheets galore. He’d break everything down that he possibly could, “analyze EVERYTHING” about the tickers he saw on the screen.

What is EVERYTHING, you’re wondering?

“The chart, the price action, the SEC filings, the fundamentals, the volume, etc.”

@team3dstocks discovered the vwap boulevard strategy
@team3dstocks talking about the work it takes to find an edge in the market

After years of analysis, it eventually led him to the highest volume days on small cap stocks. These securities that had been selling off or consolidating for a period of weeks or months after huge runs, would often gap again in the premarket many weeks or months down the road.

AllDayFaders (ADF) had discovered a pattern.

How to Find the Boulevard

These “penny stocks” as they are known to some, have a tendency to make huge intraday runs from time to time, sometimes doubling, tripling, or more in a single day, only to fade off and close lower the very same day.

VCNX runs into resistance at vwap boulevard after a 100%+ intraday run
VCNX runs into resistance at #vwapboulevard after a 100%+ intraday run

Similar in concept to Volume at Price or Anchored VWAP, but slightly different, ADF found that the low floaters hitting his scanners in the morning all had something in common.

They were running into an area of prior volume-weighted price resistance from previous high-volume days.

If he tracked backwards on the daily chart until he ran across a prior high volume run, he could use that day’s intraday vwap as a guide for the current day’s trading levels.

The Result

According to ADF, the probability is around 75-80% accuracy that the stock will run into serious resistance at these levels. And the reaction to the levels will dictate the action he needs to take — going long or short.

Along those lines, ADF has found that 70-80% of the “best faders” die in the premarket.[efn_note]https://twitter.com/team3dstocks/status/1372869249308491776?s=20.[/efn_note]. This might be a limiting factor for who can trade these type of securities. But for experienced day traders with the right tools, it can provide a great opportunity to profit before the market opens.

Outside of the premarket hours, ADF admits that the second best time to short extended stocks is “by 10am.” But only if the volume is climactic.

Those are some pretty decent odds for trading. And anyone who trades low float stocks knows how difficult they can be to trade. The temptation is there for quick and massive profits. But the risk of heavy losses looms large.

Knowing that, the #vwapboulevard strategy can be a good tool to increase your odds of success and mitigate risk. Let’s dig a bit deeper into it.

What is the VWAP Boulevard Formula

It’s quite simple actually.

Note that ADF uses and recommends ThinkorSwim for his calculation, so he references TOS a lot. Nonetheless, it can be found on just about any charting platform.

Without further ado:

That’s it.

Essentially identify the intraday vwap level for the prior highest volume days that the stock ran. Draw your line there, then wait for the current premarket or intraday action to reach and react to that level.

A simple formula right? In principle, yes. But that is definitely the simplified version.

GAP Percentage

As a rule of thumb, ADF also recommends only trading extreme gaps of 50% or more.

ADF explaining the gap percentage
ADF explaining the gap percentage

Years of price action trading experience will likely help as well. After all, you will need to know how to interpret the security’s reaction to these levels and have the discipline to put on a successful trade.

Not to mention being able to handle extreme volatility.

Along these lines, in order to help qualify the trade better, ADF employs a volume forecasting indicator.

What Is a Volume Forecasting Indicator

A volume forecast is essentially a way to predict the “end of day” volume earlier in the trading session, and at different time intervals.

Niv Goren has done a fantastic job of explaining this unique indicator and how to create your own version on his site inthemoneyadds.com. Like others, his inspiration came from AllDayFaders’ influential Twitter posts.

Volume Forecast Indicator from inthemoneyadds.com
Volume Forecast Indicator from inthemoneyadds.com

In his blog, Niv describes the step-by-step process of collecting data on prior high-volume, low-float runners, then choosing a predictive model with which to run the calculation. The results are then correlated “between different ratios and end of day results,” he says.

Interpreting Data

Understandably, running calculations like this for different time intervals, collecting the data, and analyzing it all may seem daunting. For that, Niv has created his own indicator that he sells through his site with tips on how to interpret it.

The goal with the indicator, however, is not necessarily to “know” the end-of-day volume. The goal is to understand how quickly the ratio is expanding between current volume and the end of day forecasted volume. Especially at the start of the session.

ADF coaching on how to use Volume Forecast
ADF coaching on how to use Volume Forecast

We then need to ask what this can tell us in relation to vwap boulevard and other factors. How quickly the forecast expands might tell us whether or not the stock may continue squeezing.

Predicting Tops

To understand the timing of his trades better, Niv has plotted a histogram to determine the time frame in which the majority of small cap stocks reach their intraday peak.

Interestingly enough, his findings are in line with AllDayFaders’ “by 10:00am” statistic.

Niv Goren’s histogram for timing the end of a small cap stock’s upward momentum[efn_note]https://inthemoneyadds.com/its-all-about-timing-everything-i-know-about-small-caps-times-of-day-backed-by-data/.[/efn_note]

Niv’s site includes a lot of varied and useful data, i.e. where you should cover your short, some special considerations, etc. Click the chart above, it’s worth a read if you have the time.

The last thing worth noting with the volume forecast indicator is how it might forecast float rotation.

Float Rotation

Serious small cap traders pay close attention to float data.

Professional day trader Nate Michaud of InvestorsUnderground.com coined the term after suffering a few losses earlier in his career. Nate describes it as

“the term we use referring to names with tightly held float when it begins to trade two, three, ten times and beyond the listed float causing shorts to ‘add add add’ in disbelief only to send it higher.”

Nate Michaud

So, what exactly does this mean and why is float rotation important?

Essentially, the available shares are being churned rapidly throughout the day. Contextually, if the stock is finding support at vwap boulevard and building sound bases on the way up, this could spell trouble for shorts who are, like Nate says, “add add adding” on the way up.

We’ll see an example of this in a moment.

Suffice it to say, that averaging up or down can be a very dangerous and fast way to lose money.

This goes back to ADF’s warning:

@team3dstocks tweet on getting squeezed
AllDayFaders warning on getting squeezed

Let’s take some examples from recent months to see how the pattern actually plays out.

VWAP Boulevard Long Examples

In order to visualize this and trade with the correct “boulevard lines,” we’ll take a few examples of longs and shorts at these levels and examine them.

Long Example 1 – SPI

First, let’s jump back in time to the morning of September 23, 2020. We run our premarket scan which includes market caps lower than 100m, or small cap stocks. We notice that SPI hits our %gainer list with a 200% gap in the premarket.

Here is a look at SPI’s premarket chart:

 SPI intraday chart 9/23/2020
SPI intraday chart 9/23/2020

The question now is what happens at the open, right?

Sure, we could likely place a trade with the information from this 1-minute premarket chart. There are some key levels in the premarket and so forth.

But why are they significant? Is there more to the story that could help us? There is.

Let’s now zoom out to the daily chart, and try to find our highest volume days.

Daily High Volume Bars

SPI daily chart highest volume days
SPI daily chart highest volume days

As we can see from prior months, there are a number of really high volume spikes associated with big advances. These are the clues we’re looking for.

As part of your premarket routine, when a stock that fits your criteria hits the scanners, you’ll want to locate these days on the chart.

Now comes the fun part.

You should be able to overlay a vwap indicator and find the intraday vwap levels for each of these days. Most charting platforms will have this. AllDayFaders prefers TOS charts and finds them more accurate.

Adding VWAP Boulevard Lines

If you need to get a little more granular, you can go down to the hourly or 4-hour chart to find the intraday vwap levels for the prior high volume days.

We’ll do this now using the 4-hour chart below.

SPI 4-hour chart with vwap indicator
SPI 4-hour chart with vwap indicator

In the image above, VWAP is the red line. What we’ve done is drawn horizontal lines at these vwap levels that occur during the highest volume days on the chart, typically near the closing vwap price.

As you can see, we have significant volume at $1.70s on the low end, $3.30s, and the $4 area.

!!!Be sure to superimpose the horizontal lines on the smaller time frames you’ll be trading on!!!

Now that our #vwapboulevard lines are drawn, let’s get back to that 1-minute chart and see if these lines come into play with SPI’s premarket price action.

SPI intraday 1-minute with vwap boulevard lines
SPI intraday 1-minute with vwap boulevard lines

Sure enough, these lines end up being significant. Before the open, we have a test and fail at the upper vwap boulevard at $4, as well as some significant support and resistance with the $3.30 line.

Timeliness

Now, as ADF has stated, “if volume doesn’t fall off a cliff by 10am,” we want to either get out or look for a long setup. If the top line of $4 is our upper vwap boulevard, then we need to see lower prices soon if we are taking this short.

By 9:30am, we are on the “frontside” of the trade. In other words, we are making higher highs and higher lows.

Fast-forwarding to 10am, we see the action getting hotter as volume continues to persist. We put in a double bottom at one of our #vwapboulevard key support areas of $3.35 then retest the red vwap intraday line.

SPI 10am vwap test
SPI 10am vwap test

At this point, volume isn’t really breaking down yet, which should give us pause for concern if we are short from the top. At the very least, we’ve identified our stop loss areas depending on our short entries earlier.

Volume Forecast

Likewise, if we have employed the help of the volume forecasting tool, it might be a good time to check in and see what our percentage is, or how quickly we have or have not rotated the float.

On the flip side, bulls may be looking at this for an opportunity here, risking against the key $3.30s line and intraday vwap for a long entry.

Continuing forward in time, let’s see what happens by 10:30am:

SPI intraday at 10:30am 9/23/20
SPI intraday at 10:30am 9/23/20

In the wise words of Scooby-doo, “ruh roh!”

It was supposed to fail wasn’t it? Volume is increasing. The stock is now up 342% percent. If you’re short, what do you do?

This is the purpose and benefit of the vwap boulevard strategy. Not all the key levels had broken down. Our guides were there giving us information to either cancel our short, or go long.

Who Is Trapped

In light of this, you should step back, look at the big picture now, and ask yourself, “who is trapped?

AllDayFaders explaining trapped shorts and trapped longs
AllDayFaders explaining trapped shorts and trapped longs

That’s the beauty of vwap boulevard, according to ADF. It presents us with another layer of the market in order to hypothesize on this question.

In other words, what is the meta trade? Or, the trade behind the trade. What’s going on in the big scheme of things with buyers and sellers that can give us confidence going long or short.

@team3dstocks explains supply/demand
@team3dstocks explains supply/demand

Using this thought process, whoever was averaged in short at the levels on the chart above are now in deep water.

At this point in the day, SPI has traded 82.1 million shares. It only has 16 million shares in the float. That means it has churned through the available shares over 5x since the day began.

That’s a lot.

Float Rotation

Let’s revisit why this is significant.

As Nate Michaud points out, a float rotation is like a “refresh of shareholders.” As this happens, “the stock’s trading behavior changes.”

In a great blog post on this subject, he gives the example that at each successive level you find new short sellers who replace the ones who’ve blown out at the prior levels.

ADF describes it this way:

Therefore, if longs are in control from below with a better average and a better foothold on the available shares, short sellers are really at their mercy. They are all scrambling for liquidity to cover their shorts.

This adds fuel to the fire as they average up, only to cover higher while the price continues to rise on lower supply. In the meantime, new shorts come in to sell the stock at higher prices believing it is too overbought, yet they are eventually squeezed, too.

The Carnage

Why does ADF recommend getting out of the way if you’re short when this happens near vwap boulevard?

See for yourself:

SPI 9/23/2020 massive short squeeze
SPI 9/23/2020 massive short squeeze

At $40 those shorts near the $4 vwap boulevard are probably wishing they’d gone long instead. Or at least covered. Wouldn’t you say?

VWAP Boulevard Long Example 2 – EYES

The stock symbol EYES from March 5, 2020 gave us another great example of how important vwap boulevard can be. For the sake of time, I’ve identified the vwap level for the three highest volume bars on the daily below.

EYES daily chart with vwap boulevard lines
EYES daily chart with vwap boulevard lines

These levels occur at $1.70, $2.56, and $3.46, give or take a few cents. Again, this is what you do after you’ve seen EYES hit your small cap scanner in the premarket on considerable volume and %gain.

If you’re going to trade this strategy and don’t have a built-in indicator, you’ll need to draw these lines. At the time of publication, there are a few free vwap boulevard indicators available now, from scriptstotrade.com and thevwap.com.

The Premarket

Now, let’s look at the premarket:

EYES intraday premarket with #vwapboulevard lines
EYES intraday premarket with #vwapboulevard lines

Notably, EYES hit resistance at the $2.50s level and gets rejected in the premarket. But like our SPI example above, it isn’t putting in lower lows yet.

ADF makes a note of this rejection on his Twitter feed on this day, calling out the exact levels we’ve drawn above:

ADF callout of VWAP Boulevard on EYES 3/5
ADF callout of VWAP Boulevard on EYES 3/5

Later that week, a follower of ADF notes the other level of $3.45 that we also identified above. It was a lower volume day, which ADF claims would likely have been less significant.

For this reason, we should assume that the $2.56 level was the key for our long or short thesis, but could still expect some turbulence at the $3.45 level if it got there.

Obviously this is Long Example 2, so there is no spoiler that the stock went higher. Let’s check out the move it made.

 EYES intraday at 10:10am March 5 2020
EYES intraday at 10:10am March 5 2020

Before we see the whole day, let’s pause here at 10:10am.

The Crossing

Like SPI, VWAP Boulevard couldn’t stop the bulls from crossing — no pun intended. And as we know that most of these should fail by this hour of the morning session, it was time to cover and walk away if you were short.

To that end, ADF tweeted at 10:10am with this exact warning: “Stop out immediately.”

https://twitter.com/team3dstocks/status/1367855008214048768?s=20

Wise words from the master himself, as EYES ripped higher throughout the day, all the way to $10 before noon.

Outlier Moves

We call these outlier moves. They happen from time to time. Nate Michaud does a great job explaining the thesis and fundamentals behind these moves in a great YouTube video.

For all intents and purposes, at 500% in a single day, EYES was definitely an outlier move.

EYES full intraday swing after crossing vwap boulevard
EYES full intraday swing after crossing vwap boulevard

Before we move on to shorts, take another look at the last line we have drawn at the $3.46 level for EYES (the upper black line). As mentioned above, this area was a bit of a last resort for shorts from a prior day’s vwap.

It offered one more opportunity to trap shorts and then simply grinded higher.

And there you have the long side of the story.

Disclaimer

The above examples are outlier examples of what CAN happen. Not all low float stocks will make huge moves like this.

Keep that in mind and trade at your own risk.

Long Recap

  • Identify gappers in the premarket (ideally 50%+)
  • Filter by float size (smaller caps)
  • Target stocks with enough liquidity (volume)
  • Zoom out on the daily or hourly to find high volume days
  • Draw horizontal lines on the highest volume day’s vwap
  • Go long if vwap boulevard becomes support

VWAP Boulevard Short Examples

VWAP Boulevard wouldn’t be what it is without his namesake, AllDayFaders. After all, the larger percentage of these stocks fade hard after reaching their peak in the premarket, or by 10am.

With that in mind, let’s glean what we can from two real-life examples.

Short Example 1 – VCNX

Fading all day was certainly the case with VCNX on February 19, 2021.

Since we have already discussed how to find and set lines for vwap boulevard, we’ll just show the daily chart with them already plotted to get started.

VCNX 2/19/2021 VWAP Boulevaard
VCNX 2/19/2021 VWAP Boulevaard

The Premarket

As can be seen in the next image, VCNX was gapping nicely in the premarket on heavy volume. By 9:30am EST, it was up over 100%.

However, it had not yet reached vwap boulevard:

VCNX intraday #vwapboulevard
VCNX intraday #vwapboulevard

This doesn’t mean that it is guaranteed to run into vwap boulevard. Obviously, there are no guarantees in the market.

Nonetheless, if this stock is on your radar from the premarket scan, you want to be aware of the key levels it could run to. If you’re watching multiple stocks or positions, price alerts can give you a heads up if it decides to rip higher without your eyes on it.

With levels set, if we get an exhaustive move into this prior resistance level, it could signal a short.

Replay

Let’s watch the quick replay:

VCNX vwap boulevard replay

With the help of bulls that morning, VCNX arrived right on time at our VWAP Boulevard level. 10am literally marked the top.

In the replay, at vwap boulevard you see a huge exchange of shares on the levell II. As noted in many of our other posts, this is a classic example of effort vs. result, and exhaustion.

@team3dstocks explaining bag holders
@team3dstocks explaining bag holders

Long chasers were literally handing there shares over to short sellers who were absorbing the upward momentum. After one last push above vwap boulevard, the trend changed.

We get a red “kill candle” as bulls walk away and bears go looking for “blood,” as ADF would say.

The rest is history.

VCNX vwap boulevard rejection
VCNX vwap boulevard rejection

Float Rotation

As a side note, VCNX had a float of around 15 million. By 10am that morning, it had already surpassed 100 million shares traded.

From the image above, it is quite clear that the majority of the shares traded occurred during the initial bull run to vwap boulevard. As ADF notes, the ideal “all day fader” will trail off considerably after 10am.

At that point, the momentum is lost, giving bears the confidence to ride it down.

Do yourself a favor: save your spot here and scroll up to compare the volume after 10am on the VCNX chart with the volume post 10am on the EYES chart above.

When To Cover

Returning for a moment to our discussion of Niv Goren and his analysis, we can find more data regarding the low of the day. This should help us with predicting a time to cover our short position.

According to Goren, a majority of these small cap / low float securities that fail according to plan will put in their ultimate lows in the last 30 minutes of the trading day.

Niv Goren's data on small cap stock low of trading day correlated with time. Taken from inthemoneyadds.com
Niv Goren’s data on small cap stock low of trading day correlated with time. Taken from inthemoneyadds.com

Niv’s article is worth a read as it outlines several key points that line up with ADF’s predictions, along with a few special circumstances that Goren backtested.

Generally speaking, this data makes sense of ADF’s strategy for holding these particular securities for the entire day as they are statistically more likely to make new lows by the end of the session.

VWAP Boulevard Short Example 2 – XSPA

For our last security, we’ll pick a premarket #vwapboulevard example. As ADF notes, stocks that reach this level and fail in the premarket are usually the most reliable all day faders.

XSPA did just that on March 8, 2021.

Per our premarket routine: once the security hits our premarket scanner, we pull up the daily chart and identify the prior highest volume days.

In this instance, using the January 28 intraday vwap level, we draw our line at $2.71

XSPA daily vwap boulevard levels
XSPA daily vwap boulevard levels

Once the lines are drawn, we head back to the premarket to plan our trade and see how it reacts to the levels.

With uncanny accuracy, the level proves worthy to short as bears reject the upward momentum and defend their boulevard. The stock never recovered and proceeded to sell off the entire day.

XSPA intraday #vwapboulevard rejection
XSPA intraday #vwapboulevard rejection

And that is the short side of it.

Disclaimer

The above examples are typical examples of what CAN happen on the short side. Not all low float stocks will fade all day. There may be times when stocks squeeze end of day.

Keep that in mind and trade at your own risk.

Short Recap

  • Identify gappers in the premarket (ideally 50%+)
  • Filter by float size (smaller caps)
  • Target stocks with enough liquidity (volume)
  • Zoom out on the daily or hourly to find high volume days
  • Draw horizontal lines on the highest volume day’s vwap
  • Go short if vwap boulevard becomes resistance and trend reverses
  • Look for heavy volume before 10am and volume to fade off afterward

Scanning for Candidates

How do you find good candidates for VWAP Boulevard?

This will depend a lot on your trading platform and tools. Most charting and trading platforms have built in scanners. So the look and feel of your scanners will vary greatly.

We’ll save an in depth look at scanning for another day, but essentially, what you are looking to do is narrow your results by a few things:

  1. Market Cap less than 100 million
  2. Low Float
  3. Gap percentage over 50%
  4. Outlier Volume (RVOL 100% or more ideally)

Your premarket %gain scanner is great way to narrow these results. Then once you have a few good candidates, narrow them down by float. After that work is done, it is up to you to set the VWAP Boulevard lines.

However, if you’re looking to practice this strategy in a simulator, we have done a lot of the work for you. Our scanner can scan for premarket gainers with data going back 3 years. You can also narrow by float size, premarket gap %, and volume.

Here’s a quick look:

Scanner for low floats in TradingSim
Scanner for low floats in TradingSim

Once you’ve saved your scan. Simply head back to the chart view and you’ll find your list narrowed to the top performing candidates for that day.

Low Float scan results in TradingSim

All that’s left to do is set your vwap boulevard lines with the drawing tool, and you’re set!

Be sure to re-watch the video at the start of this tutorial for more guidance on how to do that.

Considerations

There is a lot to consider with this unique strategy. Hopefully this guide has united a lot of the data for you and how it all comes together. It is certainly a more advanced day trading strategy for those comfortable with the nature of small cap securities and the volatility associated with them.

That being said, there are few points worth considering when shorting this type of strategy:

  1. Not all of these securities will be easy to borrow for shorting.
    1. Access to borrowing shares may be limited to certain brokers.
    2. Locating shares to short will have a cost associated.
  2. Trading the premarket can be risky without the right tools.
    1. The ability to use hotkeys for faster buy and sell orders may help.
    2. Liquidity issues can create highly volatile price movements.
    3. Lack of liquidity can create issues with large order fills.
    4. Stock offerings and other news releases can happen anytime.
  3. Stock halts happen frequently with volatile, low-float stocks.
    1. Depending on the halt criteria and opening price, this could result in substantial losses.

How To Find More Information

@team3dstocks has a wealth of knowledge in his tweets. He is often asked questions, but recommends simply doing a search for his tweets using Twitter search tools. Rest assured you’ll likely find an answer this way.

For example, a simple search of #vwapboulevard or #beartipoftheday will turn up a myriad of tweets on the subject. On that token, he is usually good about tagging his tweets for the very purpose of finding specific information — even for specific ticker symbols.

Here is an example of results for a quick search using #vwapboulevard:

AllDayFaders search results for #vwapboulevard
AllDayFaders search results for #vwapboulevard

Regardless of all the information, it takes practice and time to become acquainted with the strategy and nuances of trading it with real money.

How To Practice #vwapboulevard

As always, we are big proponents of putting strategies to work in a realistic environment without the risk. Once you have a solid dataset of successful simulation trades, you can try your hand with real money.

Just know that emotions will affect your performance more often than not. It is for that reason that simulator training can be a great tool to increase your learning curve on what to expect before employing actual cash.

Here’s to good fills. And remember, look both ways when crossing the #vwapboulevard!